Explaining intention to Migrate

Source: vignettes/Explaining_Intention_Migrate.Rmd

Factors influencing population movement.

Push factors are those associated with the area of origin, while Pull factors are those that are associated with the area of destination.

Reasons Pull factors Push factors
Economic More jobs, Better jobs, Higher wages, The promise of a “better life” Overpopulation, Few jobs, Low wages
Social Principles of religious tolerance Intolerance towards a certain cultural group, Active political or religious persecution, violence, family reunification
Physical Attractive environments, such as mountains, seasides… Climate change, Natural disasters

Public policy aiming at the limitation of Population movement can address both pull and push factors. Pull factors are mostly constrained by reducing access to the country.

For of push factors, it is rather program than policies that needs to be designed in relation with the composition of the different types that generate them:

  • Intervention in relation with development and poverty alleviation will mostly address economic push factor

  • Intervention in relation with protection will focus on social push factors

  • Intervention in relation with resilience and sustainability will address physical push factors

In addition of the environmental factors, intention and decision to migrate are influenced by specific profiles (for instance, age, marital status, education, personal network…).

An important question, when designing such program is related to resources allocation: how to balance efforts between the different types of intervention.

Predicting Intentions

Predicting Intention

#>                   country                     urban                       age 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>                       sex                       edu            marital_status 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>                    hhsize            share_children                      ocup 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#> remittances_or_assistnace         wealth_percentile               usa_contact 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>          usa_contact_freq             food_insecure         social_media_user 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>               perc_safety                perc_trust     perc_natural_disaster 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>         perc_env_severity         experienced_crime       unsafe_neighborhood 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>           trust_judiciary    trust_political_system              trust_police 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP" 
#>          recv_remittances            rec_assistance                 intention 
#>                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"                  "NODROP"